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"I will be sitting in this office by 2027," Sir Keir Starmer declared, noting that if our discussion went well, he might invite the interviewer into Downing Street for another conversation next year.

There is rarely ever downtime for prime ministers. In the hour before we sat down, the PM had been in calls with Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelensky and attempting to decipher what on earth had transpired in Venezuela, where his key friend, US President Donald Trump, had recently launched a strike against and detained its leader, Nicolás Maduro.

When our interview, which was much longer than normal, had concluded, Maduro had been indicted in New York.

A Refresh for the New Year

With the new year begins, Starmer appears to have had a degree of a refresh. Perhaps even just a little downtime with his family at Chequers, the prime minister's country retreat.

This seemed to have left him in better spirits than at the difficult end of 2025, a terrible political year for him.

Yet, are he and his colleagues being unrealistic if they reckon his political fate are about to turn around?

Party Concerns

The harsh truth for the PM is that numerous of his fellow MPs think he's underperforming at his job. Several of them would sooner gamble and get him out in 2026.

However Starmer was dismissing such talk during our conversation on Saturday morning.

Multiple times he told me he'd be "judged at the general election", maintaining no one would remove his five-year mandate from him – even if the best chance of stopping Nigel Farage and Reform UK entering No 10 might be for Labour to replace its leader.

"This is the battle of our lifetime and I aim to be at the forefront," he declared.

The May Elections

The problem for the PM is that he will be judged well ahead of then – in a huge set of elections in May across the UK. He tried to argue, maybe excessively, that they are concerning who runs councils, and who runs the devolved administrations in Holyrood or Cardiff – and not a verdict on Westminster.

Accurate – in part. But although he may be reluctant to concede it, No 10 will be evaluated by those elections too.

Despite this, Sir Keir implying that there were no scenario under which he would step down, even if one of his colleagues challenged him for the job, if those elections prove disastrous for Labour.

Predicting a Turnaround

He sought to rationalise his low poll ratings by saying the electorate was understandably eager for things to change. He sought to assure the interviewer, and the nation, that the coming months would be a change.

The economic situation would strengthen in the face of rising unemployment, he argued, when policies the administration put in place during their first turbulent year began to take effect.

• He committed to empty asylum hotels before the current deadline of 2029, although he wouldn't set a specific date on that.
• He noted too, with the proviso that it wasn't a foregone conclusion, that a peace agreement in Ukraine felt a greater possibility now than at any time since Russia's comprehensive invasion.
• He stated for the first occasion that Western partners were now discussing how to integrate US and European forces to offer security for Ukraine – to safeguard a potential peace.

His central message is that this year the country will "see an improvement".

Political Challenges

The prime minister may have spoken with more energy than I've seen from him for a while – less tense, maybe, with a longer slot to talk.

However, in spite of facing calls from various quarters for a more decisive approach, with greater political direction, more urgency, more speed and more immediacy, his explanations were familiar ones.

Given that he is in such significant political difficulty, is a different approach required a change of tack?

No government, and certainly not one that has been struggling in the polls for an extended period, has everything its as desired.

Sir Keir's challenges are not only because governing is difficult, but because he and his colleagues have faltered, including in the recent past.

Regrets and Risks

The PM told me that he was sorry for saying he was "delighted" to welcome back the Egyptian-British activist Alaa Abd El Fattah to the UK following an outcry when statements he'd previously made – such as calls for Zionists and police to be killed – resurfaced.

Starmer attributed it to "procedures" for not catching what the activist had said before – a fancier way of saying not my fault.

And he is inviting evident political dangers as the year gets going. His friendship with the US president entails a new jeopardy after Trump's military action on Venezuela.

Having interviewed Sir Keir Starmer, a former human rights lawyer who opposed the war in Iraq, over his career, the thought he would be at ease with this kind of intervention seems unlikely.

Policy Stances and Pressures

He asserted he was a "career-long advocate of international law" but the public "just do not have the full picture at the moment".

Critics wanted him to denounce it before the interview. And the administration is expected to face further scrutiny to give an definitive view in Parliament in the next few days.

There has also consistently been bubbling desire in the Labour party to reverse or renegotiate some of the outcomes of Brexit.

The PM rejects he's doing that, but his new specific plan to move closer with the EU's single market – the giant economic European market – will probably elicit protests that he is going back on his pledge never to try to reverse the decisions that stemmed from Brexit.

A commitment to cosy up to more of the single market will delight some on his own side, but it is prime ammunition for Reform and the Conservatives to